Jobs & Job-Seekers: Mismatch Summary

Bob asked some questions about Jobs in the US

First I asked about how nany Job seakers are there including those that have been unimplyed for a long time and not always shown in reports

After getting the result that there are 13.8M job seekers
I asked about constraints on the job openings like needed skills or locations.

I then asked how economic uncertainty might be causeing employers to slow down development and hiring.

Basically the result is that there are are twice as many people who would work if given the chance than jobs

And as an experiment I asked ChatGPT to draw some charts and pack up the summary in HTML Seems to have worked.

Executive Summary

Potential job seekers (upper bound): ≈ 13.8 million (unemployed + marginally attached + those “wanting a job now”).
Job openings (JOLTS, latest available): ≈ 7.2 million.
Policy & economic uncertainty drag: business surveys imply ~10–20% fewer openings than otherwise (≈ 0.7–1.5 million deferred/withheld postings).
Structural mismatch: skills/occupation and geography reduce how many of the 13.8M can realistically match with the 7.2M openings.

Definitions & Counting Notes

Unemployed (U‑3): No job, available to work, and actively searched in the last 4 weeks.

Marginally attached: Want a job, looked in the last 12 months, but not in the last 4 weeks.

“Want a job now” (broad): People not in the labor force who say they want a job; includes some not immediately available.

Long‑term unemployed (≥27 weeks): Still counted as unemployed if actively searching; 27 weeks is a classification threshold, not a removal rule.

Interpreting the Gap

Comparing 13.8M potential seekers to 7.2M openings overstates the “matchable” gap because:

Skills/occupation mismatch: a meaningful share of openings require skills or experience many seekers do not have (or employers are unwilling to train for).

Geographic mismatch: openings and seekers are not evenly distributed; relocation/commute limits matter and remote work is uneven.

Job quality & timing: pay, schedules, licensing, and hiring frictions (time‑to‑fill) affect realized matches.

Uncertainty Adjustment (Demand‑Side Drag)

Recent surveys (Atlanta Fed, NABE, Business Roundtable, ManpowerGroup) indicate firms are deferring or scaling back hiring due to policy/trade/macroeconomic uncertainty.

A reasonable translation is ~10–20% fewer openings than a low‑uncertainty baseline: ≈ 0.7–1.5M fewer openings compared to the 7.2M observed.

Bookends:

Optimistic: ~13.8M seekers vs. ~7.2M openings.
Pessimistic (uncertainty‑adjusted): ~13.8M seekers vs. ~5.7–6.5M openings.

Sources (for your readers)

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPS monthly, U‑3/U‑6, marginally attached, want a job now; JOLTS job openings).

Atlanta Fed executive survey on policy/trade uncertainty and planned hiring/investment.

NABE Business Conditions Survey (hiring/investment delays).

Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook (hiring subindex softness).

New York Fed/Şahin‑Song‑Topa‑Violante, Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market (occupation/geography mismatch evidence).